Weather

[AlittleSalt]

There is a 100% chance it will be dark tonight away from the cities. Otherwise there is thunder outside and the radar is showing a lot of color on it coming this way. It might rain? It could be severe, or maybe it will split and go around where you're at and nothing happens.

I'm training to become an honest weatherperson. Just Kidding of course.

[JLJ_]

I find the most helpful weather info via weather.gov -- with the forecast customized for our specific area via the "click on the map" option -- and always reading the "forecast discussion" -- more than once a day if there is a significant weather situation impending. It's for the whole area covered by that weather office, but, at least in our area, gives a better idea of what the original source weather predictors think about upcoming weather.

Regular monitoring is the key, at least here. Just a single check doesn't give nearly as clear a picture of any developing situation.

Sometimes they have high confidence in the forecast -- sometimes not. Often they'll say, for example, that they've put a low possibility of precip into the forecast for (specific areas) so that people don't expect good weather, but that chance of precip may be raised if (this happens), so to keep an eye on forecast updates if weather matters to you. Or they may say that they've put the probability higher for bad weather than they really think is most likely because it's a high travel weekend and they want people to take seriously the chance of bad roads and to watch the weather closely as the approaching (whatever) develops. Or they'll explain that they expect "banding" of snow (or other precip), which will bring heavy precip to some areas and little to nearby areas, but is difficult to predict specific affected regions until the bands begin to form.

We are near the boundary between the territories of two offices, so I monitor the predictions from both offices for our area -- which is helpful -- though the one whose boundary just misses us is much more likely to have accurate predictions for our particular area -- which one wouldn't know if using weather services that take the weather.gov info and rephrase it for their own prediction sites -- or those that just echo the official prediction for our area.

Not perfect, but, regularly monitoring the predictions and forecast discussion at weather.gov there have been many times that I've been able to protect things from hail, or get supplies in and outdoor measures taken to deal with incoming snow, or get garden things harvested or protected from incoming rain, wind, frost, etc.

Then sometimes weather is just weather and there's not much to do but emulate the wild critters -- creep into shelter and hope nothing heavy lands on your head.

[dustdevil]

Originally Posted by zeuspaul

I am puzzled when I check Weather Underground and the prediction is 40% chance of 0 inches of rain. What the heck does that mean?

40% chance of no rain(0 inches) would be 60% chance of rain.

[dustdevil]

Originally Posted by AZGardener

Here is Phx its supposed to hit 105 on Friday, 102 today. Out go the umbrellas and since I'm home with a sick kid today, I will try and give everything a hefty dose of fish emulsion... 90's seem to be ok for the garden but once we hit 100, I notice everything go south.

Would shade cloth work for you?

[AlittleSalt]

I am glad I got the yard mowed this morning. It is 80F and would be comfortable if the wind would blow and it wasn't so humid. Instead, you go outside to do light/easy gardening and 5 minutes later - your clothes are soaked in sweat and you have to take off your glasses just to see. It will be raining a lot over the weekend if this humidity stays this high.

[Gardeneer]

Haha. Today we hit 85F and sunny. But no high humidity. It was comfortable.
But few of my plants were drooping. I gave them some drink of water, even though the soil was moist. They perked right up.

[greenthumbomaha]

I do appreciate all the steps leading to modern forecasting. I think it started in the 80's with supercomputers. My adult kids are oblivious. Weather was fiction when I was their age. Thank you for this information, JLJ.

I too find it helpful to have a heads up on what might be coming down the pike. Of course things conditions can and will change, but at least I can be somewhat prepared if need be (especially mentally when a blizzard is coming )

Stay warm /cool/ dry/ wet everyone.

- Lisa

Originally Posted by JLJ_

I find the most helpful weather info via weather.gov -- with the forecast customized for our specific area via the "click on the map" option -- and always reading the "forecast discussion" -- more than once a day if there is a significant weather situation impending. It's for the whole area covered by that weather office, but, at least in our area, gives a better idea of what the original source weather predictors think about upcoming weather.

Regular monitoring is the key, at least here. Just a single check doesn't give nearly as clear a picture of any developing situation.

Sometimes they have high confidence in the forecast -- sometimes not. Often they'll say, for example, that they've put a low possibility of precip into the forecast for (specific areas) so that people don't expect good weather, but that chance of precip may be raised if (this happens), so to keep an eye on forecast updates if weather matters to you. Or they may say that they've put the probability higher for bad weather than they really think is most likely because it's a high travel weekend and they want people to take seriously the chance of bad roads and to watch the weather closely as the approaching (whatever) develops. Or they'll explain that they expect "banding" of snow (or other precip), which will bring heavy precip to some areas and little to nearby areas, but is difficult to predict specific affected regions until the bands begin to form.

We are near the boundary between the territories of two offices, so I monitor the predictions from both offices for our area -- which is helpful -- though the one whose boundary just misses us is much more likely to have accurate predictions for our particular area -- which one wouldn't know if using weather services that take the weather.gov info and rephrase it for their own prediction sites -- or those that just echo the official prediction for our area.

Not perfect, but, regularly monitoring the predictions and forecast discussion at weather.gov there have been many times that I've been able to protect things from hail, or get supplies in and outdoor measures taken to deal with incoming snow, or get garden things harvested or protected from incoming rain, wind, frost, etc.

Then sometimes weather is just weather and there's not much to do but emulate the wild critters -- creep into shelter and hope nothing heavy lands on your head.

[JLJ_]

Originally Posted by zeuspaul

I am puzzled when I check Weather Underground and the prediction is 40% chance of 0 inches of rain. What the heck does that mean?

As I mentioned above, I find the forecasts from weather.gov most helpful, but I suspect that what you mention meant 40% chance of precip -- and only a very small amount -- a "trace" of precip, too small to measure, but enough to make grass too wet to cut -- is expected if the 40% chance of precip does happen.

Originally Posted by carolyn137

. . . where I am in upstate NY onthe Vt border it was a hard freeze again last night . . . . I can't even bring myself to mention in detail what the damage has been here where I am as to daffodils,tulips, lilacs ,daylilies, roses frozen,etc.

Carolyn

I've seen you mention this several times and sympathized, I think you've said that you have a lot of perennial beds that you've developed over the years . . . so sad to have those late hard freezes hit them . . . *almost* as bad as voracious voles, and worse because of the better quality of the flowers you're losing. Your climate seems generally a little milder than ours, but we haven't had the late hard freezes, so I'm hoping the lilacs and daffodils and apple and plum and chokecherry blossoms *might* still manage something close to normal bloom, in spite of the snow, which we're still getting.

Originally Posted by greenthumbomaha

I do appreciate all the steps leading to modern forecasting. I think it started in the 80's with supercomputers. My adult kids are oblivious. Weather was fiction when I was their age. Thank you for this information, JLJ.

I too find it helpful to have a heads up on what might be coming down the pike. Of course things conditions can and will change, but at least I can be somewhat prepared if need be (especially mentally when a blizzard is coming )

Stay warm /cool/ dry/ wet everyone.

- Lisa

Computerized weather related resource data from satellites and other sources is a major advance, but I think the key to really good forecasting is the same as it's always been and lies between the ears of someone educated and experienced, with good communication skills.

Decades ago, long before personal computers -- or even widespread use of commercial/academic/govt computers -- the television station where we lived (yes, only one) had a man who was a real meteorologist (impressive academic credentials plus many years experience with weather in the region where he lived). He'd give the forecast as specified by the weather bureau, then, if he thought appropriate, he'd say something like "the official forecast is for warm and sunny, but I don't think I'd plan any picnics because . . ."

That's the same thing, I think, that makes the "forecast discussion" so valuable in the weather.gov forecasts. Not so many years ago, those forecasts were not as reliable as one might wish and I contacted the regional weather office involved whenever one was really odd. They said that the system had been set up to computer generate the forecasts, and their ability to override the computer was limited, but they were working on getting that changed . . . and apparently they did.

So their forecasts -- at least from our regional offices -- are quite good and contribute substantially to personal safety and agricultural/commercial productivity . . . and probably will until some idiot who knows nothing about what is required to produce useful weather forecasts decides that it would save money to just let the computers do the forecasting.

[rxkeith]

we got snow overnight.

not a good day to work in the garden.


keith

[Nattybo!]

Originally Posted by rxkeith

we got snow overnight.

not a good day to work in the garden.


keith

You yoopers are a tough bunch I have been to the U.P...in the summer time. Just beautiful But the the winters you guyses have to go through in order to get to summer...wowsers!

[Nattybo!]

This weather has been something else. We had 90*F at the tale end of March and I thought to myself, well summer is here already (as usual), no point planting a spring garden (peas, potatoes) b/c they would just suffer and die and not produce.

Tossed all my house plants onto the back porch for their summer home (as usual) Then we get a hard freeze. And it then stayed cold...and wet. Holy crapoly a spring? Really? Here?

Lost a ficus tree that was older than my kids...at least 15yrs and it was a few years old when I got it.

So I was going to post in my garden journal: when the Volcano Pavlof erupts in March, we actually get a real spring. Plant those peas!

[Ricky Shaw]

NWS Boulder put out this graphic yesterday. Colorado has moved from severe drought stage to nearly drought free in the last four years, as has a lot of the country.

[maxjohnson]

Miami

[MarianneW]

Arizona low deserts will be +110f for at least the next 10 days. We'll see if any of my tomato plants make it.

Aji cristal, shattah & Aleppo chiles are still plenty buy setting chiles. Go figure!

[Tracydr]

I just saw something that said over 120 in some parts of southern AZ. I have no idea what my husband was thinking when he planned our vacation for last week of June to go to AZ!